《Food Policy》｜农业激励政策对土地租赁价格的影响:来自中国的新证据

摘要：农业激励政策不仅影响农业生产，而且影响土地租赁价格。本文扩展了农业激励政策对土地租赁价格影响的理论框架，同时考虑了农业税、农业补贴和产量价格支持政策以及这些政策的实施方法。实证分析基于记录了1999-2018年中国11个省份276个村庄7122块土地的租金价格的几轮具有代表性的农村住户调查的独特数据集。调查结果显示，土地租赁价格在2010年中开始大幅上涨，之后开始回落。取消基于耕地的农业税和通过政府采购计划实施价格支持政策显著提高了土地租赁价格，但农业补贴对承包方/所有人的影响不显著。尽管计量经济学结果与理论预期一致，但本研究提供了强有力的实证证据，证明补贴的接收者(业主或经营者/租户)很重要，研究发现由于补贴和价格支持政策的实施方式不同，我国农业补贴和产出价格支持政策对土地租赁价格的影响与以往发达国家的研究结果存在显著差异。本文最后总结了政策含义。

Abstract：Agricultural incentive policies affects not only agricultural production, but also land rental price. This paper extends the theoretical framework of the effect of agricultural incentive policies on land rental prices by simultaneously considering agricultural tax, agricultural subsidy and output price support policies and methods to implement these policies. The empirical analyses are based on a unique dataset from several rounds of representative rural household surveys that recorded the land rental prices of 7122 plots in 276 villages across 11 provinces during 1999–2018 in China. The survey results show that land rental price had increased significantly until the middle 2010s and then started to fall thereafter. Eliminating agricultural tax based on cultivated land and implementing price support policy through government procurement program have significantly raised land rental price, but the effect of agricultural subsidy to contract holder/owner on land rental price is insignificant. While the econometric results are consistent with the theoretical expectations, this study provides strong empirical evidence that the recipient of subsidy (owner or operator/tenant) matters, and finds the impacts of agricultural subsidy and output price support policies on land rental price in China differ significantly from the previous findings in developed countries due to different ways to implement subsidy and price support policies. The paper concludes with policy implications.

原文链接：

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102125

期刊简介：《粮食政策》是一份多学科期刊，发表有关发展中国家、转型国家和发达经济体粮食部门政策制定、实施和评估问题的原始研究和新证据。影响因子4.552

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